Follow the Money
Economic Pulse
Follow the money, follow the cycles
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Follow the Money
Follow the money, follow the cycles
Live Data
Gold
$2,847
+1.2%
Bitcoin
$68,420
-0.8%
S&P 500
5,234
-0.3%
VIX (Fear Index)
18.3
Elevated caution
US Dollar Index
104.2
DXY basket
10Y Treasury
4.28%
Yield curve
Long Waves
These aren't predictions. They're mathematical patterns observed across centuries of economic history. Multiple independent cycles are converging on the same window: 2025–2026.
We're in the "winter" phase — the debt-driven expansion that began in the 1980s is reaching its mathematical limits. Kondratieff identified ~54-year cycles of economic expansion and contraction, driven by technological innovation and credit cycles. Every winter phase brings systemic restructuring.
Phase: Winter · Debt saturation
2008 + 18 = 2026. The cycle endpoint. Every 18 years: 1954, 1972, 1990, 2008, 2026. Fred Harrison documented this pattern going back over 200 years. The 18-year cycle is driven by land speculation and credit expansion, and it has never missed.
Next endpoint: 2026 · Pattern unbroken
The average lifespan of a dominant empire. The US turns 250 on July 4, 2026. Sir John Glubb studied 11 empires across 3,000 years and found the average lifespan was 250 years. Every empire follows the same arc: pioneers, commerce, affluence, intellect, decadence, decline.
US founded: 1776 · 250th: July 4, 2026
The generational crisis cycle. The last Fourth Turning ended WWII. This one began ~2008. Strauss and Howe identified ~80-year cycles driven by generational archetypes. Each cycle has four "turnings" — and the fourth is always a period of crisis and institutional upheaval.
Current phase: Crisis · Began ~2008
Since Nixon Ended the Gold Standard
On August 15, 1971, Nixon took the US dollar off the gold standard. Here's what happened to the price of everything since.
A 1971 dollar is worth about 12 cents today. Everything below is measured against this slow-motion collapse.
Gold
+8,900%
Can't be printed. Used as money for 5,000+ years.
Bitcoin (since 2010)
+2.2 billion %
Digital scarcity. 21 million coins, ever.
Big Mac
$0.65 →
$5.58
+758%
Beer (6-pack)
$2.05 →
$11.00
+437%
Gallon of Gas
$0.36 →
$3.50
+872%
Loaf of Bread
$0.25 →
$2.00
+700%
Median Home Price
+1,602%
In 1971: 2.4 years of salary to buy a house.
In 2026: 5.0 years of salary.
College Tuition (1 Year, Public)
+2,932%
In 1971: 2 weeks of salary per year.
In 2026: 7 months of salary per year.
The Economist's famous Big Mac Index (est. 1986) uses hamburger prices as a real-world measure of purchasing power.
Big Macs per Year's Salary
1971
15,831
2026
15,400
Roughly flat — salary kept pace with burgers
6-Packs per Month's Salary
1971
418
2026
651
Beer actually got cheaper relative to wages
Years of Salary per House
1971
2.4
2026
5.0
Housing doubled relative to income
Median US Household Income
+735%
Sounds like a raise — until you see that housing rose 1,602% and college rose 2,932%. The salary "gains" were eaten by the things that matter most.
The pattern: Everyday consumables (food, beer, gas) roughly tracked wage growth. But the things that build generational wealth — housing, education — outpaced wages by 2-4x. Meanwhile, hard assets like gold gained 8,900% and Bitcoin gained billions of percent.
Every civilization that debased its currency followed this exact pattern. Rome clipped coins. China printed paper. The US went off gold. The timeline changes, the outcome doesn't. The ancients stored wealth in stone and gold for a reason.
Convergence
"Multiple independent economic cycles are reaching transition points simultaneously in 2025–2026. This isn't prediction — it's mathematics."
The cycles don't tell you what will happen, but they tell you when the system is most vulnerable to change. A 54-year debt cycle, an 18-year real estate cycle, an 80-year generational crisis, and a 250-year empire cycle — all converging on the same 2-year window. That's not prophecy. That's math.